GCC retail sector will see 15.7% YoY growth, according to Alpen Capital

The GCC retail industry will surpass pre-pandemic levels in 2022, register a 15.7 per cent year-on-year growth and reach a revenue of $296.8bn. The industry is expected to further grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7 per cent by 2026, says Alpen Capital’s latest retail sector report.

Mega events including the World Cup, the return of tourism and population growth are among factors cited in the return to growth, with Duty Free Sales at airports also expected to grow by 65.5 per cent year-on-year to reach $2.2bn in 2022 and further projected to reach $3.0bn by 2026, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4 per cent.

Qatar will see the highest growth in the region during 2022, with its sales expected to reach $18.5bn, however, growth is expected to normalise at a CAGR of 3.5 per cent after the World Cup.

Favourable demographics, improving macroeconomic factors and tourism revival will contribute to the growth, along with governments’ push for economic diversification and growing prominence of retailers who sell in both bricks and mortar and online settings, the Alpen report said.

Sameena Ahmad, MD, corporate affairs, Alpen Capital said, “The industry was severely hit by the restrictions imposed during the pandemic; however, retailers were responsive to the changing demands and innovated to sail through difficult times. As the retail industry continues to recover, there is an urgent need for retailers to upscale their digital presence to stay relevant as well as compete with regional and international players.”

Krishna Dhanak, MD, said GCC retail is transforming post-pandemic and that consolidation is expected.“Operators have shifted their focus on brand acquisition to strengthen their geographical presence as well as expand and diversify their product offerings. Larger e-commerce players are likely to acquire niche operators offering customised products and services. Going forward, we expect consolidation in the industry to intensify in order to drive earnings, gain market share and improve operational efficiency.”

Alpen said across the region, non-food retail sales are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.2 per cent between 2022 and 2026, while food retail sales are anticipated to increase at an annualised rate of 4.9 per cent during the same period.

Saudi Arabia and UAE lead sales regionally, cumulatively accounting for 78.5 per cent of the total sales by 2026, the report added, due to large and diverse populations, liberalisation of policies and a growing appetite for unique shopping experiences.

Retail sales in the kingdom and the UAE are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 6.5 per cent and 5.1 per cent, respectively, between 2022 and 2026, Alpen said. Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.3 per cent, 6.1 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively during the forecast period, Alpen concluded.